Overview
- A YouGov survey for ITV Cymru Wales/Barn Cymru of 1,220 adults (Jan 5–12) puts Plaid Cymru on 37%, Reform UK on 23%, the Greens on 13%, Labour on 10%, the Conservatives on 10% and the Liberal Democrats on 5%.
- Seat projections by Dr Jac Larner and Cavendish map those shares to roughly Plaid 45, Reform 23, Greens 11, Labour 8, Conservatives 6 and Lib Dems 3 in the expanded Senedd.
- Both projection tools indicate First Minister Eluned Morgan could lose her seat, underscoring the scale of Labour’s decline if these figures were replicated in May.
- Party responses diverged: Plaid called the findings “momentous,” Reform described them as a snapshot, Greens said the results were “incredibly exciting,” and Welsh Labour conceded it was “not a good poll.”
- The May 7 election uses new constituencies and a revised voting system to elect 96 members, and analysts caution this is a single snapshot despite a trend since September showing Plaid rising and Reform easing.