Overview

• The YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales survey conducted 4–10 September with 1,232 respondents puts Plaid on 30%, Reform 29% and Labour 14% for the Senedd.
• Under the forthcoming 96-seat system, Cardiff University’s Jac Larner projects Plaid 38 seats, Reform 37, Labour 11, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrats 3 and Greens 1.
• Reform leads Westminster voting intention in Wales for the first time at 29%, with Plaid on 23% and Labour on 18%, according to the same poll.
• Analysis indicates Reform’s rise is driven chiefly by former Conservative voters, while Labour is losing support mainly to Plaid and the Greens with some leakage to Reform.
• The 23 October Caerphilly by-election and the shift to a single-vote electoral system increase volatility and point to coalition or minority government scenarios.