Overview
- PL Wealth reiterates a constructive 2–5 year view after Q1 FY26 GDP grew 7.8% year on year, beating expectations.
- The report flags U.S. reciprocal tariffs of up to 50% on key exports and notes USD 4 billion of August FPI outflows as near-term pressure points.
- Tactically it favors high-quality large caps and staggered entries over the next 1–3 months, with selective mid- and small-cap opportunities if volatility subsides.
- Supportive factors include July CPI at 1.55% and GST rationalisation from September, which PL Wealth estimates could lift growth by 0.2–0.3%.
- The rupee is projected at 87.5–88.5 per USD near term with risk toward 90 if tariffs escalate, while fixed income stays neutral with a long-end bias to G-Secs and SDLs and a preference for short-tenor AAA corporates.