Overview

• Trump retained 85% of his 2020 supporters in 2024 compared with Harris’s 79% retention of Biden’s backers, cementing his core advantage.
• His share of the vote rose from 36% to 48% among Hispanic voters, from 30% to 40% among Asian voters and from 8% to 15% among Black voters.
• Pew’s validated-voter analysis finds that universal turnout would still have favored Trump and likely increased his margin over Harris.
• Infrequent voters who abstained in 2020 backed Trump by 54% to 42% when they cast ballots last year, boosting his support among low-propensity voters.
• Naturalized citizens split almost evenly—47% for Trump and 51% for Harris—narrowing the previous Democratic advantage among immigrant voters.