Overview
- Without major changes, Pew projects plastic pollution will more than double to about 280 million metric tons a year by 2040, with primary production rising to roughly 680 million tons and lifecycle emissions reaching 4.2 gigatons of CO2 equivalent.
- Packaging is the largest single source of plastic waste today, and Pew finds widespread reuse and return systems combined with targeted material bans and substitutions can remove nearly all packaging leakage by the mid‑2030s.
- Modeling indicates a full suite of measures could cut overall plastic pollution by about 83%, reduce related greenhouse-gas emissions by 38%, lower health impacts by 54%, and save governments roughly $19 billion annually by 2040.
- Pew estimates plastics contribute to significant health harms, with about 5.6 million healthy life years lost in 2025 rising to 9.8 million in 2040, driven largely by pollution from production and waste disposal.
- Policy momentum remains uncertain as global treaty talks stalled in August and Greenpeace alleges corporate backtracking and lobbying, while its report finds only about one-fifth of common consumer plastics are actually recyclable and large gaps persist in U.S. recycling access and infrastructure.