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Pew Analysis Shows Shifting Demographics Secured Trump’s Reelection

High loyalty among 2020 Trump supporters alongside gains among Latino, Asian and Black voters outweighed college graduates’ preference for Harris

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Data: Pew Research Center; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Overview

  • 85% of Trump’s 2020 supporters backed him again in 2024 compared with 79% of Biden’s voters supporting Harris
  • Trump’s share of the Latino vote rose to 48% from 36% in 2020, with similar increases among Asian voters (40%) and Black voters (15%)
  • Newly participating or returning voters favored Trump 54% to 42%, suggesting higher turnout would not have tipped the election to Harris
  • College graduates preferred Harris by 16 points while non–college graduates favored Trump by 14 points, highlighting a persistent education gap
  • Naturalized U.S. citizens made up about 9% of the electorate and split narrowly with 51% for Harris and 47% for Trump