Petrobras Sets $109 Billion 2026–2030 Plan, Tightens Financing and Trims Energy Transition Spend

Overview

• The board-approved plan allocates $91 billion to projects in execution ($81 billion base plus $10 billion target subject to quarterly financiability checks) and $18 billion to projects under evaluation, with $78 billion directed to exploration and production.
• Petrobras targets a peak of 2.7 million bpd of oil in 2028 and 3.4 million boe/day in 2028–2029, supported by eight new production systems through 2030, seven of which are already contracted and heavily weighted to the pré-sal.
• Management guides $12 billion in operating savings through 2030, keeps a $75 billion gross-debt ceiling with a convergence goal near $65 billion, and forecasts $45–50 billion in ordinary dividends over the period while signaling extraordinary payouts are unlikely in the short term.
• Spending on transition and low-carbon initiatives totals about $13 billion, roughly 12% of the plan and around 20% lower than the prior program, with greater emphasis on bioproducts over many renewables.
• Shares fell more than 2% after the announcement as analysts flagged near-term leverage and reduced dividend flexibility, and reporting differed on whether the board’s approval was unanimous.