Overview
- The cut lowers the average price to R$2.71 per liter from R$2.85 for gasoline A sold to distributors starting Oct. 21, with diesel left unchanged.
- Petrobras says its refinery price represents about one third of the pump price, so pass-through will vary with ethanol blending, taxes, distribution costs and existing inventories.
- Local groups expect smaller retail drops in the near term, such as up to R$0.10 per liter in the Federal District and roughly R$0.08–R$0.10 in Ceará, with timing dependent on stock turnover.
- Abicom data indicate the reduction brings domestic gasoline closer to import parity after weeks running about 7%–10% above external benchmarks.
- Market forecasters estimate a 0.1–0.12 percentage-point drag on the 2025 IPCA, improving the odds inflation stays within the target band, while analysts say further refinery cuts are possible if oil and the exchange rate remain supportive.