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Pestel Study Puts Germany’s Housing Shortfall at 1.4 Million

The report says construction is running at roughly half the pace needed to erase the deficit by 2030.

Overview

  • The Sozialer Wohn-Monitor 2026 finds Germany needs about 400,000 new homes per year to close the gap, yet current trends point to roughly 200,000 annually.
  • The deficit is concentrated in affordable and social housing, with younger people, retirees, and people with disabilities facing the greatest difficulty finding homes.
  • Regional estimates show the largest shortfalls in North Rhine-Westphalia (376,000), Bavaria (233,000) and Baden-Württemberg (196,000), with deficits also in Berlin (56,000), Hamburg (23,000) and Bremen (13,000).
  • Higher interest rates, rising construction costs and a drop in building permits have curtailed private building, and expiring rent controls are shrinking the stock of price-regulated units.
  • Unions and social organizations call for a federal–state pact, increased funding and a rapid doubling of social housing from about one million to at least two million units, arguing the market will not resolve the shortage.