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Peso Surges as Export Tax Freeze and U.S. Pledge Drive Dollar Back Toward Pre‑Election Levels

A temporary incentives package plus Washington’s backing pushed FX and risk gauges lower, with durability dependent on farm inflows and formal financing.

Overview

  • Wholesale dollar closed near ARS 1,369 after an intraday low around ARS 1,350, while Banco Nación’s retail rate ended at ARS 1,385, both below last week’s peaks.
  • Parallel and financial rates retreated, with the blue around ARS 1,410 and MEP/CCL near ARS 1,400–1,416, narrowing spreads to just a few percentage points.
  • Futures pricing fell as much as 5–6%, with markets now implying roughly ARS 1,364 for late September and about ARS 1,50x for December, above today’s band ceiling.
  • Country risk slid to about 1,001 bps and sovereign bonds and several ADRs extended gains after Monday’s sharp rebound.
  • The move followed a zero‑rate suspension of export duties for grains and certain meats through October 31 and a public U.S. Treasury pledge of support, while any large U.S. financing remains unconfirmed and early agro liquidations are only starting to show.