Overview
- The peso strengthened to about 18.58–18.63 per U.S. dollar in early trading on Monday, November 9, breaking an eight‑week depreciation streak.
- Markets cited a retreat in the U.S. dollar index and a roughly 3% drop in oil after President Trump signaled a lower likelihood of new strikes on Iran and reports of Iran‑Qatar mediation, which reduced demand for safe‑haven dollars.
- Domestic and U.S. monetary signals complicated the picture because Banco de México cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% last week while Mexico’s October inflation rose to 3.75% year‑on‑year.
- Retail customers faced much higher conversion costs than the interbank market with bank sale prices near 19.00–19.20 pesos per dollar while some exchange houses quoted about 18.61 and Bloomberg’s mid‑market showed 18.6158.
- The rebound is likely short lived unless global risk appetite strengthens further because the smaller Mexico‑U.S. rate gap and high market odds of a December Fed hike (around 81%) continue to place pressure on the peso; traders will watch U.S. consumer‑price data and oil and geopolitical headlines for the next move.