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Peso Nears Exchange-Rate Band Ceiling as Markets Test BCRA’s Resolve

A cash squeeze and uncertainty over access to IMF funds have turned the exchange framework into a credibility test.

Overview

  • Official rates opened near their highs, with Banco Nación at $1,465 and the wholesale dollar at $1,453—within roughly 1% of the band’s cap near $1,472—while MEP and CCL hovered around parity.
  • The Central Bank cut short-term market rates by about 1,000 basis points to roughly 35% and gross reserves stood at US$40.309 billion after a US$53 million daily drop.
  • Market stress deepened after the Buenos Aires provincial vote, with stocks and bonds sliding and the J.P. Morgan sovereign risk index holding above 1,000 basis points.
  • A late‑week CNV clarification curbing MEP/CCL purchases when positions are financed via cauciones or pases sowed confusion among brokers and added to volatility.
  • The government plans to present the 2026 Budget today, and officials signaled Treasury FX sales were a temporary measure, as analysts debate whether IMF dollars can be deployed to defend the band.