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Peso Nears Ceiling of New Floating Band as Blue Dollar Premium Widens

The central bank’s stand-off in the MULC is testing Argentina’s managed float within the 1,000–1,400 peso band with election uncertainty looming

Overview

  • The official peso traded at ARS 1,275/1,300 on July 14–15, brushing against the upper limit of the 1,000–1,400 floating band
  • The blue (parallel) dollar climbed to ARS 1,300–1,345, widening the spread over the official rate to about 4 percent
  • Banco Central de la República Argentina has stayed out of the Mercado Único y Libre de Cambios since the IMF’s US$12 billion disbursement
  • International reserves held near US$39 billion after the IMF tranche bolstered buffers for the new exchange regime
  • Persistent inflation, rising debt-service obligations and a turbulent political calendar are straining confidence in Argentina’s multi-rate FX framework