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Peso Holds Mid-18 Level as Dollar Weakens on Cooler U.S. Inflation

Traders are eyeing this week’s U.S. producer-price report as the first test of whether July’s below-forecast inflation cements bets on a September Fed rate cut.

Señal de la Bolsa de Madrid frente a la fachada del edificio, en Madrid (España)
Image
Miami International Holdings (MIAX) signage during the company's initial public offering (IPO) on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025. Shares in exchange operator Miami International Holdings Inc. are indicated to open at $28 to $30 each, as much as 30% above the initial public offering price of $23 per share. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
Dólar vs Peso mexicano: ¿En cuánto cotiza el tipo de cambio hoy? | Crédito: REUTERS/Canva

Overview

  • July U.S. CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, undercutting forecasts and pushing the DXY dollar index lower.
  • Interbank benchmarks and Banxico/DOF reference rates place the peso around 18.66 per dollar, while retail windows continue to quote sell prices near 19.0–19.6.
  • Short-term futures and the CME FedWatch tool assign over a 90% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed rate reduction in September.
  • After initial gains on the CPI surprise, the peso experienced intraday swings and at times retraced, closing near 18.64 on August 13.
  • Market participants are now focused on this week’s PPI and jobless-claims releases plus next week’s Jackson Hole symposium for fresh Fed guidance.