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Peso Holds Below 18 as 2026 Forecasts Tilt Weaker

Institutional forecasts point to a weaker year-end near 19 per dollar, making U.S. data plus expected Banxico cuts the next catalysts.

Overview

  • The peso closed at 17.96 per dollar on Jan. 7, up 0.12% on the day after mixed U.S. indicators.
  • Tijuana’s commerce chamber treasurer said a sustained break above 18 is unlikely in the near term, citing lower post‑holiday dollar demand and steady cross‑border flows.
  • Citi’s first 2026 survey of more than 30 institutions shows a median year‑end forecast of 19.00, with a wide 17.10 to 20.30 range.
  • Citi’s chief economist projects 19.37 per dollar at end‑2026 and 20.99 in 2027, reflecting pressure from a narrowing BanxicoFed rate differential.
  • Analysts highlight upcoming U.S. jobs and inflation reports as key triggers, with one expecting a 17.90–18.05 trading band absent surprises, while survey consensus sees 4.0% inflation in 2026 versus Banxico’s 3.0% goal.