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Peso Extends Gains to Start 2026, Holds Below 18 Per Dollar

Analysts say the T‑MEC review will set the currency’s course.

Overview

  • The peso trades around 17.92–17.94 per dollar in early Friday dealings, with today’s range near 17.91–18.07 reported across venues.
  • Mexico’s currency capped 2025 with a 13.8% annual gain, its strongest year under the free‑float regime established in 1994.
  • Weakness in the dollar tied to expectations of easier Fed policy and a normalization of post‑holiday trading volumes supported the peso, according to Monex.
  • Strategists flag the T‑MEC review as the key risk for investment flows, with GBM projecting short‑term volatility and a possible 18.6–19.6 trading band if uncertainty builds.
  • HF Markets notes that in an orderly backdrop the exchange rate could approach 17 per dollar, while local demand from the 2026 World Cup is seen as an economic tailwind.