Overview

• Official rate pulled back from ARS 1,280 to about ARS 1,275 on July 9 while wholesale and parallel (blue) dollars held above ARS 1,260
• Dollar futures for December remain near ARS 1,443, well above the Treasury’s ARS 1,229 budget assumption, signaling deeper depreciation bets
• International reserves dropped USD 2.55 billion to roughly USD 39.17 billion after early‐July debt service, with about USD 4.3 billion in foreign‐currency bond payments due this week
• Banco Nación and other banks have made selective block dollar purchases—including a reported USD 100 million by Banco Nación—while officials deny these were for direct Treasury support
• The current volatility follows a USD 12 billion IMF infusion in late May that briefly bolstered buffers before renewed pressure from debt repayments