Overview
- The Banco Central de Reserva del Perú’s survey released Friday showed three‑month business expectations fell to 49.5, the first reading in the pessimistic range since the current administration took office, and the measure of current demand versus expected dropped to 47.3.
- Most other indicators remain optimistic, with 16 of 18 BCRP measures above 50, including current production (60.3) and sales (57.9), and investment and hiring expectations staying just over 50 despite weakening.
- The drop is uneven: construction, commerce and services registered pessimistic three‑month readings and firms in the north, center and south reported the deepest falls, reflecting concentrated regional and sector exposure.
- ENFEN warns the coastal El Niño will remain unusually strong into early 2027 and BBVA Research estimates the shock could shave about 0.9 percentage points off 2026 growth and 1.3 points from 2027, hitting fishing and agro‑export sectors hardest.
- Policymakers have announced emergency credits and a fiscal package intended to blunt the shock, but analysts say the outcome depends on timely targeting and on unblocking stalled regional projects that affect reconstruction and livelihoods.