Overview
- The Banco Central de Reserva del Perú's October survey, published Friday, recorded three‑month business expectations at 49.5 points, a 7.3‑point fall from September that moves the measure below the 50 optimism threshold.
- Firms reported current demand weaker than expected, with the demand‑versus‑expectations indicator at 47.3 points, signaling fewer orders than businesses had forecast.
- Most medium‑term indicators stayed positive: twelve‑month expectations remained at 63.1 and 16 of 18 BCRP measures stayed above 50, while investment and hiring intentions eased but remained optimistic.
- Analysts and official forecasts cited El Niño risks and downgraded growth projections as the main drivers of heightened uncertainty, with BBVA and ENFEN warning of impacts on agriculture, fishing, transport and infrastructure into early 2027.
- The near‑term drop reverses the post‑government optimism peak from July and raises the chance that weaker activity will show up at the turn of 2026–2027 if climatic shocks or slower growth materialize.