Overview

• The dollar closed at S/3.485 on October 1 after a modest intraday rise linked to concern over a potential partial U.S. government shutdown.
• The greenback ended September at S/3.473, its weakest level against the sol since June 2020, with a year-to-date decline of about 7.3% versus the end-2024 rate.
• Market participants point to last month’s Federal Reserve rate cut as a key driver of dollar softness, with favorable external flows reinforcing sol strength.
• BBVA Research projects a temporary move toward S/3.50–S/3.60 by December as electoral uncertainty intensifies, with a potential retreat to S/3.45–S/3.55 during 2026.
• The BCRP survey places the year-end 2025 rate near S/3.75, while October 1 quotes showed banks around S/3.52–S/3.55 and the parallel market near S/3.47/3.50.