Overview

• The BCR’s upgrade is anchored in stronger domestic demand, with internal demand seen rising 5.1% in 2025 and private investment projected to grow 6.5%.
• Sector forecasts were adjusted, with agriculture at 3.7% and metallic mining at 0.5%, while fishing and hydrocarbons were revised down to 2.8% and 3.5%.
• Julio Velarde said he does not currently see himself pursuing another term and indicated he would recommend Adrián Armas or Paul Castillo as successors from within the bank.
• Velarde signaled caution on policy-rate cuts despite U.S. easing and forecast inflation ending near 1.7%.
• The Economy Ministry kept a 2025 GDP growth range of 3.1% to 3.5%, while Velarde noted no clear impact from the 2026 election cycle on private investment so far.