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Peru’s Central Bank Flags Strong Start to 2026, Signals Possible Upgrade to Growth Outlook

Large external surpluses with favorable terms of trade are boosting investment and consumption.

Overview

  • The BCR projects GDP growth of 3.2% for 2025 and keeps a 2.9% baseline for 2026 pending new data.
  • Officials say national output is closing the year with solid momentum that could justify an upward revision in the mid-December Inflation Report.
  • A trade surplus near $30 billion and a current-account surplus of about 2% of GDP are set for year-end, building national savings.
  • Private investment rose 11% year over year in the third quarter versus a 6.5% full-year projection, alongside improving business and consumer confidence.
  • Positive terms of trade, including strong copper demand and supportive global financial conditions, are creating a wealth effect as the bank urges channeling savings into productive projects and acknowledges residual uncertainty, including election-related risks.