Overview
- Imarpe projects a potential reappearance starting April 2026 and says the estimate will be reviewed in Enfen’s 18 November update.
- Current readings indicate normal coastal conditions with a cooling trend since early 2025, reducing the short-term likelihood of a warm episode.
- Enfen president Jorge Paz warns that persistent ocean anomalies could trap warm water near the coast and trigger a rapid shift.
- Forecasts are revised monthly as ocean behavior evolves, and no El Niño has been declared at present.
- Any official designation uses the ICEN rule requiring Niño 1+2 anomalies above +0.4°C for three consecutive months, and authorities pledge timely communication of any change.