Overview
- ENFEN moved the national system from “Not Active” to “Coastal El Niño Watch” through Official Communiqué No. 01-2026 based on new model assessments.
- Models indicate neutral conditions in the central Pacific through May, with weak warming favored from June and a higher likelihood of a weak coastal event from April through at least October.
- For January to March, rainfall and river flows are projected near normal on the north coast and northwestern Andes, though March could bring normal to above-normal accumulations and localized flood and landslide risk.
- During the watch, ENFEN will issue communiqués every 15 days and urges authorities and the public to strengthen prevention and rely on official meteorological and oceanographic guidance.
- Officials clarified that recent intense rains are not linked to El Niño at this time, and sectoral guidance expects the north-center anchoveta stock to remain relatively nearshore, supporting fishing activity.