Overview
- ENFEN said on Sept. 29 that the coastal El Niño (Niño 1+2) remains in the “extraordinary” category and the central‑Pacific Niño (Niño 3.4) is “very strong,” with those magnitudes projected through January 2027 and coastal effects possibly lasting into autumn 2027.
- The commission updated its timing, warning that notable coastal rainfall could begin in October, with above‑normal precipitation expected for the northern and central coast in October–December and the largest accumulated rains most likely between December 2026 and February 2027.
- Senamhi observations since Sept. 22 show unusually heavy early rains in the north, including 78.5 mm at Cañaveral (Tumbes), 72 mm at Cabo Inga, and 13.5 mm at El Alto (Talara), records that support the forecast of an early, active season.
- ENFEN warned higher river flows and possible over‑average levels in basins such as Tumbes, Chira, Piura, La Leche and Jequetepeque, and said coastal air temperatures are likely to run well above normal with a chance of new highs, urging authorities to use updated risk scenarios and advisories to prepare.
- Impacts will be uneven: some coastal and lowland communities face flooding and disrupted fisheries from warmer seas, while parts of the highlands and Amazon could see normal or below‑normal rainfall, so responses must be regionally targeted and monitored as new data arrive.