Overview
- Peru’s ENSO panel, which updated its outlook Saturday, kept a Coastal El Niño alert and now projects a weak event lasting to February 2027 with a moderate phase most likely between May and August.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of El Niño forming between May and July at about 82 percent and estimates roughly two-thirds odds it reaches strong or very strong intensity into the 2026–27 winter.
- Peru expects warmer-than-normal air along the coast and near- to above-normal rain on the north coast in May to July, and warming seas are likely to push anchoveta schools deeper, complicating the fishery.
- Forecasters flag region-specific risks, including more Pacific tropical cyclones with fewer in the Atlantic, higher tide-driven flood risk along U.S. coasts, and an unusual mix of heat and heavy rain across parts of Mexico.
- Scientists caution that spring forecasts carry high uncertainty because ocean–atmosphere feedbacks may not lock in, and the Panama Canal Authority says it does not expect transit limits through December 2026 despite close monitoring.