Overview
- Capeco expects the sector to finish 2025 close to 6% growth after an estimated 12.5% jump in November, the fastest monthly pace since January 2024 and the sixth straight month of expansion.
- The rebound is driven by roughly 9.5% growth in private investment, with support from mining works, a robust housing market, and projects under OxI and APPs, with OxI adjudications nearing S/5,000 million this year.
- Forecasts differ across institutions: Capeco 5.9%, BCRP 5.7%, BBVA 5.6%, Apoyo 5.1%, and MEF 4.3%.
- Labor and cost indicators improved as construction employment in Lima rose 1.1% to 439,000 jobs and the construction materials price index fell 1.84% year over year, easing project costs.
- Risks flagged for 2026 include weak public investment execution that could leave about S/19,600 million unspent, a funding gap at ANIN of roughly S/3,000 million, pre‑electoral uncertainty, urban service bottlenecks, and worksite insecurity.