Overview
- Mid‑July meteorological alerts from Senamhi and ENFEN say Kelvin‑wave pulses have driven coastal sea‑surface temperatures 2–5°C above normal and could make this one of the strongest El Niño episodes in decades.
- National risk agencies Indeci and Cenepred estimate about 6 million people in roughly 796 districts are exposed, with 1.2 million potentially affected or displaced in a strong to extraordinary event.
- A Cámara de Comercio de Lima analysis finds roughly 23% of Peru's GDP is exposed because the most at‑risk regions account for large shares of fishing, agriculture, manufacturing, transport and trade.
- Official economic data show early impacts: the central bank reported May declines in primary activity with industrial fishing down about 74% and agricultural output already showing losses.
- Public, private and civil‑society forums held on July 16 produced a preparedness roadmap and technical priorities such as river descolmatation, health brigades and logistics hubs while the incoming government says it is drafting a rapid action plan but regional prevention capacity and frontline health facilities remain weak.