Overview

• Julio Velarde said recession fears in the United States have largely faded this year, highlighting continued economic resilience.
• He warned that U.S. tariff measures promoted by President Donald Trump will gradually erode Latin American growth by reducing productivity and efficiency.
• He argued that global political-risk indicators have stayed elevated since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine even as financial assets show little sign of that risk.
• Citing historian Niall Ferguson, he noted that U.S. interest payments have surpassed military spending and relayed Ferguson’s projection that China could attempt to invade Taiwan during the current administration.
• He judged a broader escalation of the war in Ukraine unlikely and pointed to rising frictions in parts of Asia, while emphasizing that severe tail risks remain.