Overview

• The BCR’s latest report projects GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, with inflation near 1.7% and a 4.25% policy rate.
• Velarde described the government’s Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework as slightly optimistic, echoing concerns previously raised by the Fiscal Council.
• He cited a terms‑of‑trade surge not seen since the 1950s, forecasting a 2025 trade surplus of about US$30 billion and exports above US$91.4 billion in 2026.
• Net international reserves reached US$88.6 billion as of September 17—about 28% of GDP—and he said the sol remains the region’s most stable currency this century.
• The bank pointed to stronger domestic momentum, with private investment expected to rise 6.5% this year, formal employment up 5.1%, and real formal payrolls up 7.6%.