Overview
- December’s BCRP survey showed 10 of 12 business sentiment indicators eased month over month, yet all remained above the 50-point optimism threshold.
- Short‑term investment expectations strengthened, with the three‑month indicator rising to 57.6 from 55.8.
- Hiring expectations softened, slipping to 53.5 for three months from 55.9 and to 61.1 for 12 months from 62.8.
- The central bank left its reference rate at 4.25% for a fourth consecutive month and highlighted near‑term momentum in construction, commerce and manufacturing.
- The bank estimates GDP growth of 3.3% in 2025 and about 3% in 2026, factoring expected election‑period moderation, while noting Petroperú rescues have strained fiscal accounts through roughly S/3,000 million in honored guarantees and around S/4,000 million in prior capitalization.