Overview
- ENFEN’s Comunicado Oficial N.° 01-2026 shifts the national system from “No activo” to “Vigilancia de El Niño Costero.”
- Projections point to a higher probability of weak coastal warming beginning in April 2026 and persisting at least to October, with Niño 3.4 remaining neutral through May.
- During the watch, ENFEN will issue exceptional bulletins roughly every 15 days to track evolving ocean and atmospheric conditions.
- Forecasts indicate mostly normal rainfall on the north coast from January to March, with a chance of above‑normal totals in March that could elevate flood and huaico risk; ENFEN says recent intense rains are not yet linked to El Niño.
- ENFEN advises authorities and communities to reinforce prevention and preparedness as even a weak event could affect fisheries, agriculture, water resources and infrastructure.