Overview
- ENFEN shifted the national alert from “Not active” to Coastal El Niño Vigilance under Official Notice No. 01-2026.
- Forecasts indicate a higher likelihood of weak coastal warming starting in April 2026 and lasting at least through October.
- Climate models project neutral conditions in the Niño 3.4 region from January to May, then a predominance of weak warm anomalies from June.
- Seasonal guidance keeps rainfall and river flows near normal for the north coast and western northern Andes, with March on the north coast flagged for normal to above-normal totals.
- ENFEN urges institutions and the public to strengthen prevention efforts and follow official advisories, noting warm seas alone do not guarantee heavy rains without supportive atmospheric instability.