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Pentagon Says China Expects It Can Win Taiwan War by 2027

The assessment cites steady progress toward decisive capability by 2027, with nuclear forces growing and arms-control talks stalled.

Overview

  • China’s operational nuclear warheads were in the low 600s in 2024, and the Pentagon projects the stockpile to surpass 1,000 by 2030.
  • The report says Beijing is making steady progress toward a capability for a “strategic decisive victory” in a Taiwan contingency by the end of 2027.
  • Planners are integrating civilian and military resources for whole-of-state mobilization designed to deter or overcome external intervention.
  • Chinese leaders have expanded the scope of “core interests” to include the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and parts of northeast India.
  • Officials highlight state-linked influence operations overseas and report no sign of Chinese willingness to engage in comprehensive arms-control talks, marking the first such assessment released during President Trump’s second term.