Overview
- Washington’s newly released annual assessment says China has likely loaded more than 100 DF-31 ICBMs into three northern silo fields, the first public U.S. estimate of missiles placed in those sites.
- The report judges China’s nuclear arsenal was in the low 600s in 2024 and remains on track to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, characterizing Beijing’s buildup as the fastest among nuclear powers.
- Pentagon analysts say China expects to be able to fight and win a war over Taiwan by the end of 2027 and is refining options that include long-range strikes 1,500–2,000 nautical miles from the mainland.
- China’s Foreign Ministry disputes the missile-deployment claim, calls U.S. warnings exaggerated, reiterates no-first-use and minimum-deterrent principles, and points to a recent arms-control white paper.
- The assessment reports no appetite in Beijing for arms-control talks, even as President Donald Trump has floated denuclearization discussions, and notes earlier U.S. caveats that draft language could change before submission to Congress.