Overview

• The U.S. Defense Department has drafted plans to sell or transfer Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, pending a presidential order, after President Trump said he has "sort of" decided and questioned how Kyiv would employ them.
• ISW assesses that Tomahawks could enable Ukrainian strikes deep in Russia, naming the Yelabuga Shahed drone plant and the Engels-2 air base among potential targets.
• Ukraine lacks compatible launchers for Tomahawks, and U.S. military officials note that using the Army's Typhon system could heighten the risk of direct confrontation with Russia.
• President Vladimir Putin warned that supplying Tomahawks would constitute a new level of escalation and downplayed the missiles as not fully modern.
• Key uncertainties include how many missiles could be provided, how they would be securely stored, and their battlefield impact, though their roughly 1,000-mile range far exceeds ATACMS.