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Pentagon Pizza Index Flags Surge Before Israel’s Strike on Iran

Rooted in Cold War-era observations, the index surfaced hours before the June 12 assault that the U.S. government says it did not orchestrate.

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Donald Trump picking up some pies while campaigning in Iowa last year
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Overview

  • On June 12 at about 7 p.m. ET, the Pentagon Pizza Report logged a sharp rise in orders from four Arlington pizza outlets followed by a sudden drop ten minutes later.
  • Hours after the reported surge, Israel launched a covert assault on Iranian nuclear and military sites and Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Israel.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed that the United States played no role in the strikes and emphasized its priority was protecting American forces.
  • The Pentagon dismissed the predictive value of pizza spikes, noting on-site dining options—pizza, sushi, sandwiches and donuts—are available to late-shift staff.
  • Researchers including King’s College London’s Zenobia Homan caution the index may reflect confirmation bias and call for broader data to assess its reliability.