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Pentagon Estimates Iran Nuclear Program Delayed by Up to Two Years

Suspension of IAEA inspections complicates efforts to confirm the scope of the damage to Iran’s enrichment facilities.

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Overview

  • Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said on July 2 that U.S. strikes on Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan set back Iran’s nuclear work by one to two years, with officials judging a two-year delay most likely.
  • A low-confidence Defense Intelligence Agency assessment had earlier placed the setback at just several months, underscoring disparities within U.S. intelligence evaluations.
  • International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi cautioned that Iran could resume uranium enrichment in a matter of months despite the bombing damage.
  • Iran’s parliament enacted a law to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, effectively barring UN inspectors from verifying conditions at its nuclear sites.
  • Diplomats and inspectors are working to verify the extent of the damage, negotiate new oversight measures and evaluate the location of undeclared uranium stockpiles.