Overview

• At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that Beijing is “credibly preparing” to use force to shift the Indo-Pacific balance and flagged a potential Taiwan invasion by 2027.
• Hegseth pressed US allies and partners in Asia to raise their defense budgets to 5 percent of GDP, a goal currently unmet by any regional country.
• The US is expanding forward deployments across all services, including a newly stationed Marine anti-ship missile battery in Luzon, to reinforce deterrence against Chinese advances.
• Washington’s parallel use of universal tariffs and pressure on Malaysia and Vietnam to enforce rules of origin has heightened tensions over trade policy consistency with its security partners.
• European leaders are urging strategic autonomy through new Asia-Europe coalitions, and South Korea’s upcoming election could redefine Seoul’s defense posture and US alliance commitments.