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Pensions Report Ups Forecasts as Young Union Revolt Imperils Merz’s Reform

Fresh cabinet figures projecting sharp near‑term increases plus large reserves intensify a fight over long‑term costs.

Overview

  • The cabinet approved the Rentenversicherungsbericht, which now projects a 3.73% pension rise from July, roughly 4.75% in 2027, cumulative gains of about 45% by 2039, and reserves of €51.9 billion.
  • Eighteen young Union MPs still deem the draft law not approvable, leaving the coalition’s December majority in doubt as Jens Spahn urges quiet talks to find a deal.
  • Negotiators are exploring a narrow path to compromise that could include a companion resolution, faster work by a new Rentenkommission, or delaying the vote, according to reporting on internal talks.
  • Economists and business groups attack the package’s guarantees as too costly, with Martin Werding estimating about €145 billion for the 2029–2040 ‘Haltelinie’ and employers warning the state cannot afford it.
  • Die Linke says it is considering voting for the bill unless it is weakened, a potential lifeline as the demographic squeeze looms with 13.4 million baby boomers reaching retirement by 2039.