Overview

• The earnings-led uprating now projected at about 4.7% would lift the full new state pension to roughly £12,535 a year, just below the £12,570 personal allowance.
• With the allowance frozen until April 2028, HMRC is expected to use end‑of‑year simple assessments, prompting concerns about confusing tax demands landing in April–May 2027.
• Labour has pledged to retain the triple lock this Parliament, while a DWP Pensions Commission chaired by Baroness Jeannie Drake, Sir Ian Cheshire and Professor Nick Pearce will report in 2027, and experts anticipate it could propose an alternative.
• Analysts warn the policy’s long‑term cost is unsustainable, citing a £145.6bn state pension bill for 2025/26 and suggesting options including raising the pension age or compulsory private saving.
• The two‑tier system means post‑2016 retirees on the new state pension gain larger cash rises than those on the older basic pension, and more pensioners with additional income streams could be pulled into tax.