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Pension Rise Projected for July 2026 as Youth Burden Concerns Put Reform in Peril

DRV projections discussed in cabinet indicate a roughly 3.7% increase funded by higher contribution rates plus expanded federal transfers.

Overview

  • The statutory pension is provisionally set to rise by about 3.7% from July 2026, with the final adjustment due in spring 2026.
  • The government's plan would hold the pension level at a minimum 48% to 2031, requiring additional federal money of up to roughly €10 billion a year from 2027.
  • The Rentenversicherungsbericht projects the contribution rate staying at 18.6% until 2027, then climbing to 19.8% in 2028 and 21.2% by 2039.
  • Passage in the Bundestag is uncertain as 18 young Union MPs threaten to withhold support, a move that could deprive the coalition of a majority.
  • A new Politbarometer finds 71% say pension policy overburdens younger generations, reflecting broader expert warnings about intergenerational fairness.