Overview
- The Acta Astronautica paper published October 29 assesses a hypothetical Taurid resonant swarm by combining new observation campaigns with dynamical modeling.
- A 7:2 orbital resonance with Jupiter could concentrate Taurid debris into denser clusters that periodically raise the chance of atmospheric airbursts.
- The authors pinpoint close-approach windows in 2032 with night-side geometry and in 2036 from the sunward direction for targeted surveys using existing telescopes.
- Researchers emphasize that overall odds remain extremely low and report no evidence of objects above global-catastrophe size, focusing on airburst-scale hazards like Chelyabinsk and Tunguska.
- The study, supported by NASA and the NNSA at Los Alamos, highlights planetary-defense programs and notes that future assets such as NEO Surveyor could extend warning times.