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Peer-Reviewed Study Flags Possible Taurid Swarm Risk in 2032 and 2036

UNM researchers outline a Jupiter-driven debris cluster hypothesis that is low probability yet directly testable.

Overview

  • The Acta Astronautica paper published October 29 assesses a hypothetical Taurid resonant swarm by combining new observation campaigns with dynamical modeling.
  • A 7:2 orbital resonance with Jupiter could concentrate Taurid debris into denser clusters that periodically raise the chance of atmospheric airbursts.
  • The authors pinpoint close-approach windows in 2032 with night-side geometry and in 2036 from the sunward direction for targeted surveys using existing telescopes.
  • Researchers emphasize that overall odds remain extremely low and report no evidence of objects above global-catastrophe size, focusing on airburst-scale hazards like Chelyabinsk and Tunguska.
  • The study, supported by NASA and the NNSA at Los Alamos, highlights planetary-defense programs and notes that future assets such as NEO Surveyor could extend warning times.