Overview
- The Nature Food paper estimates 293.1 million people are in IPC Phase 3 or higher versus the IPC’s 226.9 million, a shortfall of 66.2 million people.
- Researchers analyzed nearly 10,000 assessments across 33 countries from 2017 to 2023, representing 917 million individuals and 2.8 billion person-observations.
- Statistical “bunching” just below the 20% cutoff shows a tendency to classify areas as slightly under crisis when indicators conflict or data are noisy.
- The IPC’s classifications guide more than $6 billion in annual humanitarian funding, so undercounts risk leaving substantial needs unmet.
- The team recommends stronger data collection and decision support, with machine-learning tools used to complement the IPC consensus process rather than replace it.