Overview

• The Nature Medicine analysis estimates 62,775 heat-attributable deaths from June 1 to September 30, 2024, bringing the combined toll for 2022–2024 to more than 181,000.
• Italy had the most deaths at about 19,038, followed by Spain (~6,743), Germany (~6,282) and Greece (~5,980), while Greece recorded the highest rate at 574 deaths per million people.
• Women experienced 46.7% more heat-related deaths than men in 2024, and mortality among people over 75 was estimated to be 323% higher than in other age groups.
• Researchers used daily temperature and mortality data from 32 countries to fit epidemiological models and reprocessed earlier summers, revising 2022 and 2023 totals upward; they report a wide 2024 uncertainty range of roughly 35,000 to 85,000 deaths.
• The study validated an operational warning tool (Forecaster.health) as reliably signaling exceptional heat-mortality risk at least a week in advance, highlighting opportunities for earlier alerts and targeted protection.