Overview
- The model estimates the France returns pilot coincided with an 8.8–9% reduction in arrivals between July 10 and October 31, or 1,482 fewer than the 16,746 predicted.
- After the Rwanda removals scheme was dropped, arrivals were 24% higher than projected in the model.
- The analysis also links the post‑Brexit end of Dublin III to arrivals 41% above projections and the 2022 Albania returns agreement to arrivals 36% below projections.
- The model forecasts 45,651 crossings for 2025, with more than 39,000 recorded so far.
- The Home Office reports over 100 returns to France under the pilot and contrasts this with the Rwanda scheme’s £700m cost and four returns, while the study’s author cautions the observed fall may reflect normal variation and opposition figures use the findings to criticise Labour’s approach.