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PCE Data Lifts Fed Cut Bets as Stocks Rise, Dollar Slips and Ibovespa Ends Flat

An in-line PCE print sharpened rate-cut expectations, leaving Brazil’s session driven by stock-specific swings.

Overview

  • U.S. PCE inflation rose 0.3% on the month and 2.7% on the year in August, matching forecasts and reinforcing expectations for additional Fed easing in 2025.
  • CME monitoring showed the probability of two 25-basis-point cuts this year climbing to about 65%, while the DXY index fell roughly 0.41%.
  • Wall Street closed higher after a volatile session, with the Dow up 0.65%, the S&P 500 up 0.59%, and the Nasdaq up 0.44%.
  • In Brazil, the real strengthened to R$5.338, short and intermediate DI futures eased, and the Ibovespa finished at 145,446.66 points, up 0.10% on the day but down 0.29% for the week.
  • Company news drove dispersion on B3: Braskem plunged 14.81% after hiring advisers for a capital-structure review, Vale fell around 2% on weaker iron ore, and Petrobras turned lower to close down 0.34% after early support.