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PC Market Rebounds in 2025 as Gartner Confirms Q4 Surge, but Analysts Flag 2026 Supply Risks

Corporate Windows 11 upgrades, not on‑device AI, powered the late‑2025 surge.

Overview

  • Gartner’s preliminary data show Q4 2025 shipments at 71.5 million units, up 9.3% year over year, with full‑year volumes topping 270 million for 9.1% growth.
  • Replacement cycles tied to Windows 10’s end of support and Extended Security Update costs drove business demand as vendors promoted AI‑capable PCs.
  • Gartner notes most AI PC features have yet to deliver clear productivity gains, so many organisations upgraded to future‑proof rather than to realise immediate value.
  • IDC warns the rapidly tightening memory market could push PC prices higher, lower average memory configurations, and potentially cause a shipment dip in 2026.
  • Late‑2025 component purchases by AI data‑centre operators lifted memory and GPU costs, while vendor rankings stayed stable with Lenovo leading and share gains for HP and Dell.