Overview

• The PBO projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio will climb above 43% over the medium term, reversing the earlier goal of a decline.
• Debt-service costs are forecast to exceed $55 billion this year and rise toward $82.4 billion by the end of the decade.
• Interim PBO Jason Jacques estimates about $115 billion in net new costs since March, with a substantial share tied to defence.
• Lowering the bottom personal tax rate from 15% to 14% reduces revenues, compounding pressure from higher spending.
• The PMO has asked most departments to table plans for cumulative 15% spending reductions over three years as the Nov. 4 budget nears.