Overview
- Canada’s budget watchdog projects zero population growth this year, which would follow Statistics Canada’s estimate of flat growth in 2025.
- The non‑permanent resident population is forecast to fall by about 385,000 in 2026 and a further 289,000 in 2027, with roughly 80% of the decline expected to be work permit holders leaving.
- The federal plan slashes new temporary work and student visas from about 674,000 in 2025 to roughly 385,000 in 2026.
- Permanent resident admissions are targeted at 380,000 annually from 2026 to 2028, alongside two one‑time pathways expected to fast‑track 148,000 people, including up to 115,000 unable to return home and up to 33,000 workers with strong roots.
- The share of non‑permanent residents peaked near 7.6% in 2024 and is now projected to drop below 5% by the end of 2027, with overall population growth seen at 0.3% in 2027 and stabilizing around 0.8% in the medium term.